Coming to you with a special update today as we are expecting a dying wave of storms moving through tonight after dark and likely right around bedtime or just after.
Before we get to the storms, we are dealing with some cloud cover and not-so-bad temps. At the time of this writing, we have only reached 87 as the high here at the HQ.
Tonight, we are expecting a line of storms to move through around midnight or just after, give or take. These should be weakening as they move through, but we can’t rule out damaging winds. The image above is what HRRR is currently predicting the radar to look like around 1am for us. This rain will be moving to the southeast.
For those who like to know what the SPC says and the risk levels, they have most of us in the Marginal Risk (1 out of 0-5 scale) for severe weather, with the northwest part of our county being in the Slight Risk (2 out of 0-5 scale). Breaking that down means a 5-14% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of you, and for the folks in yellow, that is a 15-29% chance of damaging winds, a 2-4% chance of a tornado, and a5-14% chance of damaging hail 1inch or greater.
Don’t pay too much attention to where the dark green and yellow are, as storms don’t stay perfectly in these maps. Because the system will be “dying” or weakening as it moves through, the greater risk is in the northwest part of Middle Tennessee (and folks in our northwest parts of the county such as Cumberland Furnace, Slayden, and Vanleer, and less as you move southeast.
For the weather nerds, these storms are expected to be elevated in nature, as there will be a bit of a cap (aka temp inversion) in place to keep them from being too rowdy. We don’t expect this cap to break.
Stay weather aware and have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up while you’re sleeping, but otherwise, don’t anticipate a widespread severe weather event with this system.
There may be some rain hanging around early Thursday morning as this system rains on us overnight after the storm part moves through.
We’ll have another shot at rain possible Thursday night into Friday morning before ending to give us a dry weekend before rain chances creep back on Monday. Temps over the next several days are going to be “pleasant” compared to the heat we’ve been dealing with – sticking to around 89-90 through the weekend.
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